As this year’s flu season begins, a vaccine shortage has left the nation with about 60,000 doses of the flu vaccination, instead of the usual 100,000. Many experts say that this shortage will result in a sharp increase in the rate of deaths caused by the flu, but the experts say there is another possibility: the shortage may not result in any more deaths than usual.
Even though grade-school children are the majority of flu cases, in most years, people age sixty-five or older account for more than ninety percent of flu deaths and people age eighty-five or older are thirty-two times more likely to die from the flu than those age sixty-five to sixty-nine.
The flu vaccine is most effective in preventing death among the elderly and the seriously ill, but there are other factors. Flu viruses are constantly evolving and the strains differ from year to year. It takes eight months to make the shots; committees must decide by February which strains of flu to use in the vaccines for the next year. This means that vaccines are least effective in the years when new flu strains affect the population.
On average the flu kills about 35,000 U.S. residents per year, but in a year with a bad epidemic, as many as 50,000 residents can die. “If it’s going to be a bad year, unfortunately, vaccinations may not make that big a difference,” said Dr. Paul Lewis, an epidemiologist with the Oregon Dept. of Human Services.
According to the federal government’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 15 million to 60 million U.S. residents get the flu each year. Since many flu patients do not seek medical care, and doctors do not have to report cases, these numbers represent an educated guess. The CDC tracks epidemics through several systems, including death reports from 122 cities throughout the country. An epidemic is declared when P&I (pneumonia and influenza) deaths exceed levels set as normal for winter months. The nation’s last flu epidemic ended last February, when 8.6 percent of all deaths in the 122 cities were from pneumonia or influenza.
It is still too early to tell whether this year’s vaccine shortage will result in a higher number of deaths in the U.S. among people in both high- and low- risk categories, partly because of unknown factors, such as which flu strain will dominate. There are some steps everyone, including college students, can take to help lower the chances of catching the flu, even if they are not able to get a vaccination. The easiest among these is washing hands regularly. This inhibits the spread of infectious disease. Walking (or other daily exercise) is another thing people can do. Besides burning calories, walking helps strengthen the immune system by briefly increasing levels of white blood cells that serve as a key line of defense against infection.
Having a handful of almonds or sunflower seeds is also a good idea. Both are rich in vitamin E, an antioxidant proven to counteract oxygen damage to biomolecules. New research hints that vitamin E may also help reduce the number and duration of common colds and other upper-respiratory infections. Getting enough sleep can also help keep the flu away. Sleep deprivation is widespread, but missing even a few hours of sleep can produce a striking decline in natural killer cell activity. These cells destroy others that are infected with viruses and bacteria. Production of chemical messengers that turn on the immune system is slowed when someone is sleep-deprived. Good sleep is required for activation of the immune system to occur.
These tips may seem like common sense, but many college students do not do these simple things that could keep them from getting sick. Eating healthy, exercising, and getting enough sleep may prove just as effective in preventing the flu as getting a flu vaccination.